National Debt

Labor government Coalition government

Gross Debt Over Time

Total Australian Government Securities on issue by instrument type, face value ($b). Monthly data since 2003.

Source: AOFM Portfolio Aggregate — Executive Summary (dealt basis) Face value · $b AUD

Who Holds the Debt

Share of government bonds held by foreign investors, the RBA, and domestic institutions. Quarterly, market value basis.

Sources: AOFM Foreign Holdings, RBA A3.1 % of government bonds on issue

Treasury Bond Maturity Schedule

All Treasury Bonds on issue, grouped by maturity year and split by holder. Teal = RBA-held (QE bonds being unwound). Blue = private investors. Bar height = total refinancing task for that year.

Sources: AOFM portfolio aggregate (TB series); RBA A3.1 $b AUD face value · grouped by maturity year

Debt-to-GDP Ratio

Gross government debt as a percentage of nominal GDP. The standard measure of debt sustainability used for international comparisons.

Sources: AOFM Portfolio Aggregate, RBA H1 % of nominal annual GDP

Debt-to-GDP — G7 Comparison

General government gross debt as % of nominal GDP — Australia versus G7 peers. Annual IMF World Economic Outlook data. Note: uses the IMF's general government definition, which consolidates all levels of government including states and territories. Australia's figure (~43%) is higher than the Commonwealth-only measure shown in the chart above (~34%) because state government debt is included here — necessary to keep all countries on a comparable basis.

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (GGXWDG_NGDP, general government gross debt — all levels of govt) % of nominal GDP · annual

Government Debt vs Money Supply

Total government bonds on issue against M3 broad money supply. Monthly, both in $b AUD.

Sources: AOFM Portfolio Aggregate, RBA D3 $b AUD

Private Debt

Household Debt vs Government Debt

Total credit extended to Australian households — owner-occupier mortgages, investor mortgages, and personal credit — compared with Commonwealth gross debt. Household debt is nearly three times government debt and is the larger financial burden for most Australians.

Sources: RBA D2 Credit Aggregates (household), AOFM Portfolio Aggregate (government) $t AUD · seasonally adjusted

Commonwealth vs State Government Debt

Debt securities on issue for the Commonwealth and total of all state/territory general governments. States borrow primarily for infrastructure. Annual financial year data from ABS GFS.

ⓘ Shows debt securities only. States also borrow via financing authority loans (TCorp, QTC, etc.) which are not captured here. Total state borrowings are ~2.75× higher — see State Government Debt by State below.

Source: ABS Government Finance Statistics Annual (5512.0) — DO002 (Commonwealth), DO011 (Total State) $b AUD · financial year ending 30 June · debt securities only

State Government Debt by State

Total financial borrowings per state and territory general government — debt securities, advances payable, and other loans. Includes on-lending from state financing authorities (TCorp for NSW, QTC for QLD, SAFA for SA) so all states are comparable. Annual, financial year ending 30 June.

Source: ABS Government Finance Statistics Annual 5512.0 — DO003–DO010 (individual state general governments) $b AUD · FY end · advances + other loans + debt securities

Budget & Fiscal

Commonwealth Budget: Revenue, Expenses & Interest

Annual Commonwealth Government revenue versus total expenses, with interest on government debt shown as a separate component. The dashed green line shows the primary balance — the deficit or surplus before interest payments — revealing the underlying fiscal position.

Source: ABS Government Finance Statistics Annual (5512.0) — Commonwealth General Government Operating Statement $b AUD, financial year ending 30 June

Commonwealth Expenses by Purpose

Annual Commonwealth government expenses broken down by functional purpose. Social protection is by far the largest category. The 2020–21 spike in Economic Affairs reflects COVID-19 business support (JobKeeper).

Source: ABS Government Finance Statistics Annual (5512.0) Table 4 — Expenses by Purpose $b AUD, financial year ending 30 June

Net Debt & Annual Balance

Commonwealth net debt (total liabilities minus superannuation provisions minus financial assets) shown against the annual fiscal balance. Green bars = surplus, red bars = deficit. Net debt rises when deficits are run and falls when surpluses are recorded.

Source: ABS Government Finance Statistics Annual (5512.0) — Commonwealth General Government Balance Sheet (Table 3) $b AUD, financial year ending 30 June

Defined Benefit Super Liability & Future Fund

Commonwealth defined-benefit superannuation liability (CSS, PSS, military, parliamentary pensions) versus the Future Fund balance. The stacked bars show how much of the super liability is covered by the Future Fund (teal) and how much remains unfunded (coral). The liability is discounted at long-term bond yields, making it highly rate-sensitive — it peaked at $430b in 2020 when rates hit historic lows.

Sources: ABS Government Finance Statistics Annual 5512.0 Table 3 (super liability); Future Fund Annual Reports (FUM — flagship fund only) $b AUD · financial year ending 30 June · Future Fund FUM manually updated from annual reports

Cost of Portfolio Debt vs Market Rates

The effective rate the government actually pays on its debt portfolio, versus the RBA cash rate and 10-year bond yield. The portfolio rate lags market rates — most bonds were locked in at COVID-era lows and will cost more as they mature and are refinanced.

Sources: ABS 5512.0 (interest expense), AOFM Portfolio Aggregate (gross debt), RBA F1 & F2.1 % per annum, financial year ending June

Annual Borrowing Requirement

Net new government borrowing each fiscal year (bars), versus the budget balance (line). Even in surplus years, debt can still grow as maturing bonds are refinanced — the gap between the bar and the budget deficit represents this refinancing component.

Sources: AOFM Portfolio Aggregate (gross debt change), ABS 5512.0 (budget balance) $b AUD, financial year ending June

Bond Market Value — Impact of the Rate Cycle

Mark-to-market price per $100 face value of a hypothetical 10-year Treasury Bond issued each January from 2015 to 2024, at the prevailing 10yr yield at issuance. Computed monthly from RBA yield curve data using standard semi-annual bond pricing. Bonds issued in 2021 (teal, thicker) fell furthest — to ~$76 at peak rates in late 2023, a ~24% paper loss — because they carried the lowest coupon (~1.1%). Bonds issued in 2015–18 and 2022–24 were far less affected. Price recovers toward $100 as maturity approaches.

Source: RBA F2/F2.1 (yield curve) — hypothetical par bonds priced at prevailing RBA yields, semi-annual compounding $ per $100 face value

Government Assets & Investment

Commonwealth Financial Assets

Breakdown of Commonwealth general government financial assets from the ABS GFS balance sheet, 2015–16 to 2024–25. Total financial assets reached $668b in 2024–25, dominated by 'other financial assets' (Future Fund and similar) and equity in public corporations. Despite this, gross liabilities of $1.49 trillion leave net financial worth at –$824b.

Source: ABS Government Finance Statistics Annual (5512.0) — Commonwealth General Government Balance Sheet (Table 3) $b AUD, financial year ending 30 June

Government Capital Investment (GFCF)

Quarterly general government gross fixed capital formation, split by federal defence, federal non-defence, and state & local governments. State and local governments dominate (~75% of total), building roads, hospitals, and schools. Federal defence GFCF covers ships, aircraft, and hardware. Data from ABS National Accounts (5206.0), seasonally adjusted, current prices.

Source: ABS National Accounts (5206.0) Table 3 — General Government Gross Fixed Capital Formation, seasonally adjusted current prices $b AUD per quarter

Revenue

Federal Tax Revenue by Category

Annual Commonwealth taxation revenue broken down by category, 2015–16 to 2024–25. Personal income tax is the dominant source (~47%), followed by company tax (~21%) and GST (~14%). The excise category includes fuel excise and other levies. Values from ABS 5506.0 Taxation Revenue.

Source: ABS 5506.0 Taxation Revenue, Australia — Table 1 Commonwealth Government $b AUD, financial year

State & Local Tax Revenue by Category

Annual combined state and local government tax revenue by category, 2015–16 to 2024–25. Stamp duties on property transfers are the most cyclical component — they rise sharply during housing booms and contract during downturns. Payroll and land taxes are more stable. Values from ABS 5506.0 Table 10.

Source: ABS 5506.0 Taxation Revenue, Australia — Table 10 Total All States $b AUD, financial year

State & Local Tax Revenue by State

Annual state and local government tax revenue for each jurisdiction, 2015–16 to 2024–25. Includes all state government and local government taxation (council rates etc.). NSW and VIC together account for over half of total state-level revenue. Source: ABS 5506.0 Tables 2–9.

Source: ABS 5506.0 Taxation Revenue, Australia — Tables 2–9 individual jurisdictions $b AUD, financial year

Monetary Policy

Upcoming Events

Next RBA Monetary Policy Board meetings and key ABS data releases. Upcoming meeting dates marked ~ are approximate pending RBA confirmation.

RBA Board Meetings rba.gov.au ↗

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ABS Data Releases abs.gov.au ↗

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Australian Government Bond Yield Curve

Yields across maturities at a selected date. Use the slider to navigate history since 1969, or click Play to animate.

● 10y – 2y: — —

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1969 Today

Compare:

Source: RBA F1.1 (money market), F2 historical & F2.1 (capital market yields) % per annum

RBA Cash Rate Target

The Reserve Bank's official cash rate since 1990. Rising rates increase the cost of servicing government debt and household mortgages.

Source: RBA F1 — Interest Rates Per cent per annum

Inflation (CPI, Year-ended)

Annual change in the Consumer Price Index — all groups, Australia. The RBA targets inflation between 2% and 3% over the medium term.

Source: ABS / RBA G1 — CPI All Groups, year-ended % change % per year

Real Interest Rates

Cash rate and 10-year bond yield each minus CPI inflation. The dashed line shows the real 10yr bond using trimmed-mean CPI — the RBA's preferred underlying measure — stripping out volatile items for a cleaner signal.

Sources: RBA F1 (cash rate), RBA F2/F2.1 (10yr yield), ABS/RBA G1 (CPI year-ended) Nominal rate minus CPI · % per annum

Underlying Inflation

RBA underlying inflation measures: trimmed mean (removes top and bottom 15% of price changes each quarter), weighted median, and CPI excluding volatile items. The RBA targets underlying inflation in the 2–3% band over the medium term. Data from RBA G1.

Source: ABS / RBA G1 — trimmed mean (GCPIOCPMTMYP), weighted median (GCPIOCPMWMYP), excl. volatile items (GCPIXVIYP) % year-ended

Producer Prices (PPI, Year-ended)

Annual change in the Producer Price Index — final demand, Australia. Producer prices often lead consumer prices by one to two quarters.

Source: ABS 6427.0 Table 1 — Final demand, year-ended % change % per year

Producer Prices by Sector

Year-ended output price changes across key sectors. Manufacturing: all output; Construction: building (residential + commercial); Transport: road freight; Services: architectural, engineering and technical.

Source: ABS 6427.0 — Tables 12, 17, 21, 24 % per year

CPI by Component

Year-ended CPI inflation broken down by the 11 major expenditure groups (ABS 6401.0 Table 18). Shows which categories of spending are driving inflation and which are moderating.

Source: ABS 6401.0 Table 18 — CPI group index numbers, year-ended % change % year-ended · quarterly · weighted average of 8 capital cities

RBA Balance Sheet — Assets & Liabilities

Detailed weekly breakdown of the RBA's balance sheet. Assets split into: foreign exchange reserves, gold, other official reserves (SDRs, IMF position), AUD investments (AGS bonds bought via QE + TFF loans), and other assets. Liabilities show Exchange Settlement balances (bank reserves) as the primary counterpart to QE, alongside banknotes and government deposits. Equity turned negative in 2022–23 from mark-to-market bond losses.

Assets

Liabilities & Equity

Source: RBA A1 (balance sheet, weekly) + RBA A4 (gold/FX split, monthly) $b AUD · weekly · from July 2013

10-year – 2-year Yield Spread

Difference between 10-year and 2-year AGS yields (monthly). Green bars indicate a normal (upward-sloping) curve; red bars indicate inversion. Persistent inversion historically precedes rate cuts and economic slowdowns.

Source: RBA F2 historical & F2.1 — 10yr minus 2yr yield Percentage points

Economy

GDP by Expenditure Component

Breakdown of Australia's quarterly GDP (current prices, seasonally adjusted) into household consumption, government consumption, gross capital formation, and net exports (exports minus imports). Bars show domestic demand; the net exports line shows the trade contribution to GDP. Data from ABS National Accounts 5206.0, 1959–present.

Source: ABS 5206.0 Table 3 — Expenditure on GDP, Current prices, Seasonally Adjusted $b AUD · quarterly · seasonally adjusted

Unemployment Rate

Monthly unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) — the share of the labour force actively seeking work. Data sourced from the ABS Labour Force Survey.

Source: ABS / RBA H5 — Unemployed persons as % of labour force, seasonally adjusted % of labour force

Wages vs Inflation

Wage Price Index (year-ended % change, seasonally adjusted) against CPI inflation. When WPI falls below CPI, real wages are falling — workers are getting a pay cut in purchasing-power terms.

Sources: RBA H4 (WPI, ABS), RBA G1 (CPI) % year-ended change · quarterly · seasonally adjusted

Wage Price Index by Industry

Year-ended WPI growth by industry sector, total hourly rates excluding bonuses, Australia. Shows which sectors are driving wage inflation and which are lagging.

Source: ABS 6345.0 — Wage Price Index, Australia (quarterly index numbers) % year-ended change · quarterly

Average Weekly Earnings by Industry

Full-time adult ordinary time weekly earnings by industry, all persons. Biannual survey snapshot — most recent available period. Mining consistently leads; hospitality and retail trail.

Source: ABS 6302.0 Table 10G — Average Weekly Earnings by Industry (biannual, employer survey) $ per week · full-time adult ordinary time · all persons

Terms of Trade

Australia's goods and services terms of trade index (ratio of export prices to import prices, 2022/23 = 100). When the index rises, each unit of exports buys more imports — a boost to national income. Driven primarily by iron ore, coal, and LNG prices.

Source: RBA H1 / ABS National Accounts 5206.0 — Terms of trade (GOPITT), quarterly Index (2022/23 = 100) · quarterly · seasonally adjusted

Private Business Investment

Private business gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) — investment in new buildings, machinery, equipment, and intellectual property. Current prices, seasonally adjusted. A key driver of long-run productivity and economic capacity.

Source: ABS National Accounts 5206.0 Table 3 — Private business GFCF (A2304051J), current prices, seasonally adjusted $b AUD · quarterly · seasonally adjusted

Labour Productivity

Real GDP per hour worked, indexed to 100 at 2019-Q4 (pre-COVID). Rising productivity is the foundation for sustainable real wage growth. Computed from RBA H1 (real GDP) and H5 (hours worked).

Sources: RBA H1 — Real GDP (GGDPCVGDP); RBA H5 — Total hours worked (GLFMHW) Index 2019-Q4 = 100 · quarterly · seasonally adjusted

Population

Debt per Australian

Gross government debt divided by Australia's estimated resident population. A way to contextualise the scale of national borrowing.

Sources: AOFM Portfolio Aggregate, ABS 3101.0 $k AUD per person

Population Growth: Natural vs Migration

Quarterly population growth split into natural increase (births minus deaths) and net overseas migration (NOM). Values are in thousands of people.

Source: ABS 3101.0 — National, State and Territory Population (Table 1) thousands of people per quarter

Housing

Median House Price

Median price of established house transfers in Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane. Left axis in AUD; right axis shows the same price expressed as ounces of gold — revealing how housing has become more or less affordable in real monetary terms. Quarterly, 2002–present.

Source: ABS 6432.0 — Total Value of Dwellings, Table 2 (unstratified median) $k AUD (left) · oz gold (right)

Rents

Estimated capital-city average weekly rent in AUD (left axis) and oz of gold (right axis), derived from the ABS CPI Rents sub-group index anchored to a 2025 reference level of ~$640/week. Quarterly, 1972–present. Absolute figures are approximations; the trend is reliable.

Source: ABS 6401.0 CPI Table 18 — Rents sub-group index (A2331876F), anchored to ≈$640/wk (2025) $/week AUD (left) · oz gold/week (right)

Building Approvals

Monthly dwelling units approved for construction — split into houses and other dwellings (apartments, townhouses). Building approvals lead actual housing supply by 12–24 months. Data from ABS 8731.0, original series, 1983–present.

Source: ABS 8731.0 Table 9 — Total dwelling units approved, Australia (A418427K, A421262J, A422064L) number of dwellings · monthly · original (not seasonally adjusted)

Trade

Merchandise Export Composition

Monthly merchandise exports broken down by SITC commodity group, 1988–present. Metal ores (mainly iron ore) are Australia's largest export. Coal and LNG are the next-largest, followed by gold and agricultural products. Values are current price AUD millions, not seasonally adjusted.

Source: ABS 5368.0 Table 12a — Merchandise Exports by SITC (1-2 digit), original, current prices $b AUD · monthly · not seasonally adjusted

Merchandise Import Composition

Monthly merchandise imports broken down by SITC commodity group, 1988–present. Machinery and transport equipment (including vehicles) dominate imports. Petroleum reflects Australia's refining capacity shortfall. Pharmaceuticals sit within Chemicals. Not seasonally adjusted.

Source: ABS 5368.0 Table 13a — Merchandise Imports by SITC (1-2 digit), original, current prices $b AUD · monthly · not seasonally adjusted

Current Account Balance

Quarterly current account balance broken down into goods and services, primary income (investment returns to/from overseas), and secondary income (transfers). Australia historically runs a current account deficit. Data from ABS 5302.0, 1959–present.

Source: ABS 5302.0 Table 1 — Current account and components, $m, original $b AUD · quarterly · original

Net Foreign Debt

Australia's total net foreign debt position — the accumulated stock of overseas borrowings (minus overseas lending). Decomposed into public and private sector components. Quarterly, 1988–present.

Source: ABS 5302.0 Table 16 — Foreign Debt Levels (A3374925K, A3374948A, A3374947X) $b AUD · quarterly · end of period

Markets

AUD/USD Exchange Rate

Australian dollar against the US dollar since 1971. The AUD floated in December 1983. Captures purchasing power, commodity cycle sensitivity, and the cost of Australia's USD-denominated imports and foreign debt servicing.

Sources: FRED DEXUSAL (1971–2006), Yahoo Finance AUDUSD=X (2006–present) AUD per 1 USD

ASX 200

Monthly closing level of the ASX 200, covering the 200 largest companies on the Australian Securities Exchange by market capitalisation. Data from 2000.

Source: Yahoo Finance — ^AXJO (ASX 200); monthly close Index points

Gold & Silver Price (AUD)

Monthly spot price of gold and silver in Australian dollars, derived from COMEX futures (GC=F, SI=F) converted at the prevailing AUD/USD exchange rate. Gold (left axis) and silver (right axis) trade at very different price levels.

Source: Yahoo Finance — GC=F (gold), SI=F (silver), AUDUSD=X; monthly close, converted to AUD AUD per troy oz

Share Market in Precious Metal Terms

ASX 200 index level expressed as ounces of gold (left axis) or ounces of silver (right axis) required to buy one "unit" of the index. Removes the effect of currency debasement — when this ratio falls, shares are cheapening in real terms relative to hard assets.

Source: ^AXJO (ASX 200) ÷ AUD gold/silver spot price oz gold (left) / oz silver (right)